Currently, Twitter is the Internet’s dominant micro-blogging service. It has shown that micro-blogging is a distinctly different form of communication deserving of it’s own niche, and it has done so well with its own micro-blogging service that micro-blogging itself is perhaps better known as Twittering.
Of course, there is one small problem. Twitter is a closed platform. As Tim Bray put it:
The basic problem is that Twitter is centralized; that’s not how the Internet works.
A quick look at history tells us that open communication protocols win in the long run. When you call someone on the phone, you aren’t limited to people using the same telephone service provider. When you email someone, you aren’t limited to people who are using the same Internet service provider. Even actual blogging has standardized norms (RSS and Atom) that allow people using blogger, WordPress, LiveJournal, or any other blogging mechanism to easily follow blogs on other platforms. (Though, cross-blog commenting is still a bit of a problem.)
Although I could talk about the Network Effect or Metcalfe’s Law, for the purposes of this post, I will focus on the key security design problem facing Twitter. This is not to say that the Network Effect and Metcalfe’s Law aren’t important. They are. I’m just talking about another, unrelated reason that supports the need for diversity in the micro-blogging industry.
A recent incident is an exemplar of the real problems caused by a centralized protocol like Twitter. An attacker was able to hijack several high-profile Twitter feeds, including Barack Obama’s campaign feed and the official Fox News feed. How did this happen? Well, it turns out that there was a security design flaw on the Twitter site that allowed rapid login attempts. This allowed an attacker to use a dictionary attack against the Twitter account of a member of Twitter’s support staff. Once the password was guessed, the attacker was able to get access to any feed in all of Twitter-dom.
The key security flaw in any centralized protocol is that such protocols are monocultures. Bananas are a great example of the danger of monocultures. Bananas are an extremely important crop worldwide, but the vast majority of bananas grown are of the Cavendish variety. Why? Because the tastier Gros Michel bananas were wiped out by a disease. They were all essentially genetically identical. There was almost no diversity in the banana ecosystem. As a result, they were unable to adapt to the disease, and since the same problem exists with the Cavendish, we’re still one bad disease away from a worldwide shortage of bananas.
The same problem exists for micro-blogging. If you want to micro-blog, you effectively need a Twitter account. Twitter is so dominant that almost all micro-bloggers are using Twitter, which makes it a monoculture. Because Twitter is a monoculture for micro-blogging, the micro-blogging itself is one bad security incident away from obliteration. Also, if Twitter were to go belly up (which is not, as Tim Bray discussed, outside the realm of possibility for an Internet-based company), then, effectively, the entire micro-blogging industry would be eliminated.
At this point you might say, “Wait! Twitter has an open API!” This is not the same as open source, and it does not eliminate the threats posed by monocultures. It does mean that it is very easy to add functionality to the Twitter protocol, but it does not mean that you can participate freely without a Twitter account.
Micro-blogging needs a viable open source alternative to create a federated micro-blogging protocol. Tim Bray proffered Laconica and one of the commenters in his thread mentioned the soon-to-be open source Jaiku, which was recently shutdown by Google.
Whatever happens, a federated micro-blogging protocol would be far more robust than the current Twitter monoculture. If I were to add a single gutsy prediction to the list over at Freedom to Tinker, it would be that a major security incident at Twitter allows an open source alternative to gain a foothold in micro-blogging. It may not happen this year, but I think it’s inevitable with any monoculture.